NFL Week 12 betting guide and our best bets for the Westgate SuperContest, Business Insider
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When gambling, the smallest margins always seem to make the difference.
During Monday night’s shootout between the Chiefs and Rams, both teams combined to score 105 points between them, but one missed extra point from Los Angeles still made the difference between a winning week and a losing week for our picks in the Westgate SuperContest.
No time to mourn our losses though – we’re back at it this week with our five best bets for this Sunday, plus a few other wagers to consider making this weekend.
Home teams get the asterisk.
LAST WEEK: 2-3OVERALL: 25-29-1
New York Giants (+6) over Philadelphia Eagles*
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The Eagles secondary is so banged up that head coach Doug Pederson told the media that some receivers were taking reps at cornerback in practice this week.
Philadelphia may be the better team, but covering as 6-point favorites against a rejuvenated Giants team feels like a tall order. On the Giants side of the ball, things are looking a lot better, with Eli Manning finally taking advantage of his team’s plethora of offensive weapons.
Carolina Panthers* (-3.5) over Seattle Seahawks
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The Carolina Panthers are undefeated at home, and with the Saints running away with the NFC South, this matchup against the Seahawks carries huge implications for the conference’s Wild Card picture.
Cam Newton is in the midst of another incredible season, completing over 68% of his passes and with 20 touchdowns to just six interceptions. He should do enough to get the Panthers the win and the cover.
Indianapolis Colts* (-7.5) over Miami Dolphins
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The Dolphins have lost three of their past four games, with all of those losses coming by more than a touchdown. While Miami has Ryan Tannehill returning at quarterback this week, he’s already admitted he won’t be at 100%, and the rest of team surrounding him is still made up of the same teammates.
Meanwhile, the Colts have been firing on all cylinders lately, winning four straight games and giving chase to the Houston Texans in the AFC South. This doesn’t feel like the spot where they’d slip.
Denver Broncos* (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Denver Broncos might be the most under-the-radar team in football right now. Their defense is quietly among the best in the NFL, and Case Keenum has kept the Broncos’ offense moving well enough to keep pace with some of the league’s heavy-hitters.
The Steelers have won six games in a row but showed some cracks against the Jaguars last weekend, and they’re now heading into their second straight road game. Look for the Broncos to keep things close or even win outright.
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) over Minnesota Vikings*
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We’ve officially entered “R-E-L-A-X” time for Aaron Rodgers. While the Packers haven’t looked much like a playoff team so far this season, Green Bay has proven year after year that they can turn it on when they need it.
Further, the first time these two teams met, the Packers were robbed of their victory after a brutal penalty on Clay Matthews gifted the Vikings a tie. Green Bay is out for vengeance.
Eliminator Lock: Baltimore Ravens
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Teams used: Saints, Rams, Vikings, Chargers, Panthers, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Bears, Chiefs, Falcons
The Falcons didn’t come through for us last week, but for those still alive in their Eliminator pools, the pickings continue to get slimmer. This week, the Ravens and their newfound rushing attack led by Lamar Jackson are facing off against the Raiders and the second-worst run defense in the NFL.
Feels like about as good a pick as you’ll find on the board this week.
Money Dog: Green Bay Packers (+155)
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I’ve already listed all the reasons the Packers feel like a good bet this week against the Vikings, but when was the last time you got to bet Aaron Rodgers as a moneyline underdog against a divisional opponent? It doesn’t happen all that often.
Weekly Tease: Cardinals (+18.5), Patriots (-4)
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This week we’re taking two games in way opposite directions for our six-point teaser.
First, we’re taking the Cardinals up to 18.5-point underdogs against the Chargers – with Melvin Gordon and Tyrell Williams both questionable to start, Arizona should at the very least be able to keep the game within three scores.
Then, we’re taking the Patriots down to just 4-point favorites against the Jets. Coming off a loss and a bye week, Tom Brady should be good for a comfortable win.
Monday Night Chaser: Titans @ Texans Over 41.5
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I’ll have to check the numbers on this, but with how scoring has been coming this season, it feels like any total listed at 44 or less should be an automatic over play.
Now check out our picks for this weekend’s college football action.
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